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the crisis

Jun. 6th, 2009 | 03:12 pm

It seems to me that what we are seeing nowadays in the economy is being mistaken for financial crisis.

From my perspective, what is being experienced is essentially a failure of the way the state and the institutions protect the public good, of which the financial crisis is only a symptom.

If that is the case, the possibility is left open for a bigger collapse down the road. 
Those events are rather unfortunate, giving the big role of the US in the world.
Unfortunately, the america that built this framework of prosperity is gone, and with it, the priorities they had.

In terms of practical matters, I would only play it safe in terms of asset if I had to choose.
And that does not mean holding on dollars, but rather some land or vineyard

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Le sentiment d'insecurite progresse au Salvador

May. 29th, 2009 | 08:41 pm

 Encore une manipulation de Sarkozy et des medias


Venu déposer au procès du meurtre de son fils à Paris, le président élu du Salvador Mauricio Funes a fondu en larmes en expliquant qu'il n'aurait jamais cru une telle violence possible dans un pays comme la France.:

"On avait décidé de l'enlever du Salvador car il n'y a pas autant d'opportunités qu'ici. Nous pensions qu'il serait plus en sécurité car, chez nous, c'est une société très violente avec un fort taux de criminalité"

Etudiant en photographie à Paris, son fils Alejandro, est mort à l'âge de 27 ans dans la nuit du 1er au 2 octobre 2007 sur le pont des Arts, sur la Seine, près du musée du Louvre à Paris, des suites d'un coup porté sur la tempe avec un outil.L'homme jugé aux assises et qui reconnait les faits, Mohamed Amor, français d'origine marocaine de 32 ans, avait bu et provoquait sans motif précis un petit groupe d'étudiants latino-américains qui jouait de la musique et discutait autour d'Alejandro Funes.


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(no subject)

Nov. 24th, 2008 | 10:05 am

Causeur est un nouveau site dont la consommation est un regal. savoir transformer la chienlit en legerete est un don appreciable !

La Halde tire la sonnette d'alarme dans son rapport :
 
"Aucun des 359 exercices de mathématiques analysés n’évoque l’homosexualité" (p85)

et préconise la creation d'un "comité de vigilance" p206. La Halde sait manier la carotte mais surtout le baton : cette haute autorite a de vastes moyens financiers et legal pour poursuivre en justice les contrevenants.  Leur maniere de proceder est assez interessante, puisqu'elle somme une personne inculpée (sur delation) de s'expliquer,  tout en ayant l'obligation de cacher le litige qui motive cette demande d'explication

Dans l'hypothèse où la HALDE se heurte à un refus de coopération de la part de la personne mise en cause et où toute tentative de médiation apparaît vaine, la haute autorité peut saisir le juge des référés afin d'être autorisée à rentrer dans les locaux professionnels et à se faire communiquer les documents sollicités. 
 
 Douce France...

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destin du bout du monde

Nov. 22nd, 2008 | 05:32 pm

François Léonce Verny, (December 2, 1837-May 2, 1908) was a French officer and naval engineer[1] who directed the construction of the Yokosuka Naval Arsenal in Japan, as well as many related modern infrastructure projects from 1865 to 1876, thus helping jump-start Japan's modernization.


Yokosuka est juste en dessous de Tokyo, apres Yokohama.

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Petit commentaire economique #2

Sep. 23rd, 2008 | 01:03 pm

The development of what started a year and half ago seems to get bigger everyday to the point where one should reflect upon the meaning of it. I already blogged about it last year, and I personally sold the few stocks I had in june 07, as I recommended in my entry.
In an attempt to rationalize the current events, I can only point to a few effects

- This is a financial crisis, not an industrial crisis
- From a finance perspective, the problem is not liquidity, but losses. those can be actual and acknowledged for (banks revealed 500bUSD up to now) or in the making (real etate market is still falling...)
- Liquidity injections are (only) potent at making sure industrial companies will be protected from liquidity problems.
It does not solve the loss problem from banks.
- There is a huge burden being transferred onto american taxpayers, of which the last 700 bUSD is only a portion.
- The 700bUSD plan is politically sensitive and kind of hard to enact really..
- USA are very reliant on foreign countries lending them money (china, japan, europe) or using USD for their own purpose


The only perspective I have ever seen for the housing bubble, for the huge debt as well, is that of inflation.
Problem is, inflation will threaten the confidence investors have in the USD, on which america notoriously relies on.
As a chinese or a japanese, I would not want to buy more USD (except if I am confident I will have more and more resources in the future, and I think I can bargain this against significant role or power)


Overall, for the future, my guesses are :
- There is a significant risk of dollar collapse, in which case some intervention will come (around 1.8 EURUSD)
- The bailout package might depress consumption as people realize tough times are ahead.
- If that is the case, I expect overreaction (downward) from stock market as the economy adapts to a shift in economy equilibrium (real estate) and a shift in regime (recession)

In terms of financial instrument that means :
- buy call EURUSD strike 1.5 , sell call EURUSD strike 1.8, both when it comes around 1.45
- if there is a further 45 pct drop in stock market, go in and buy some (so SP500 roughly at 650), in the meantime, buying some puts



ps : My personal take for the US would have been energetic and economy independence, but this is clearly impossible in the current state : wall street greed and political irresponsability pays more than the opposite. and of course the journalist who are supposed to spread the information were busy taking of more important subject like Mr Spitzer love affair.....



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Banissement du Japon

Jul. 14th, 2008 | 10:56 pm

Un groupe d'artistes australiens s'est vu interdire l'acces au territoire japonais.
En effet, ils avaient laissé lors d'un precedent sejour des graffitis.


http://www.dannychoo.com/detail/mac/eng/image/5058/Refusal+of+Entry+to+Japan.html

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Le mystere se leve

May. 22nd, 2008 | 09:37 pm

Que signifie "interconnexion" dans le jargon SNCF, cet objet enigmatique qui ne fonctionne qu'une fois sur deux sur le RER ?
Le Figaro nous donne l'explication :


"Un exemple, qui peut paraître anecdotique aux provinciaux, en dit long sur son projet de SNCF modernisée : la fameuse «interconnexion» de la ligne B du RER à la gare du Nord, qui existe depuis plus de trente ans et est exploitée conjointement par la SNCF et la RATP. Cette situation «justifie» le changement de conducteur en cours de parcours, soit au minimum 40 secondes de perte de temps. Un casse-tête pour les gestionnaires de cette ligne RER parmi les plus fréquentées et dont les trains peuvent en heure de pointe se succéder toutes les deux minutes. À partir de l'été prochain, d'un bout à l'autre de cette ligne qui dessert notamment l'aéroport de Roissy-Charles-de-Gaulle, un seul et même agent conduira le train."


Il a du en falloir des reunions pour pondre un tel projet !

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Transmission

May. 3rd, 2008 | 02:43 pm

Je vais faire de la plongee bientot au japon.

Me souvenant que René Perrimond Trouchet, mon grand oncle, avait contribué à l'essor de la plongée, au GERS petite officine de la Marine qui a vu naitre la plongée à bouteille, peu après la 2e guerre. Je suis tombé sur quelques informations interessantes.  Je le savais deja inventeur et de ressources legendaires.

Mais je ne savais pas que pres de la moitie du materiel du commando Hubert fut concu ou ameliore par lui.
Dont le systeme le plus connu, l'Oxygers, qui donne leur fameuse allure de zombi sorti des tréfonds aux commandos une fois hors de l'eau.

J'aimerais beaucoup avoir des temoignages le concernant !
J'imagine que parmi l'immensite de mon lectorat ca doit pouvoir se trouver.


http://www.wikipatents.com/gb/860756.html

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France, terre de contraste

Apr. 13th, 2008 | 12:14 pm

Chaque année un évènement considérable met en ébullition le monde de l'édition.
En quelque jours, plus d'un million d'exemplaires d'un même livre sont sortis des presses.
Il ne s'agit pas du dernier roman d'un auteur a succès, mais plus précisément d'un guide, le fameux guide Duchemin.
Au jour prévu, en quelques heures,la célèbre couverture rouge et bleu fait son apparition a la devanture de toutes les librairies.
Des milliers d'exemplaires sont expédiés dans le monde entier a la destination des futurs touristes, qui n'imaginent pas visiter la France sans cette sorte de Bible qui leur permettra, les yeux fermes, d'échanger leurs dollars, leurs livres sterling, leurs escudos, leurs roubles, ou toute autre devise contre quelques fines spécialités de la gastronomie francaise.

Les décisions du guide font la une des grands quotidiens qui commentent abondamment les célèbres petites étoiles attribuées aux restaurants méritants ou retirées a ceux qui ont faillis.
Car ses jugements sont sans appel, et ils ont fait la fortune, et la gloire internationale, de certains d'entre eux.
Mais tous, quelle que soit leur renommée, tous, appréhendent la visite d'un des mystérieux inspecteur du célèbre guide.

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Economy

Mar. 15th, 2008 | 01:31 pm

My last post on the subject pinpointed the trouble lying ahead. (here)


Now that a bit of time has gone, and big news such as bear stearn default came out, it is time to make a recap.
This event is the kind of event that can transfer the credit and interest rate mayhem from within the financial world to the equity market.

The underlying forces are still valid : we have a few seemingly independent stories going on, which are all related to each other through financial institutions.

1- a big housing bubble
2- high leverage hedge funds
3- weakened financial institutions

 
All those are impacted by the cut of availability of actual cash money.

1: - no loans available to buy houses
2: - the borrowing needed to have the leverage is not available anymore, and assets needs to be sold to pay back
3: - financial losses appears from easily written mortgages to financially fragile customers, as well as from loans to hedge funds or unreadiness to a changing credit condition.

Financial corporations as a whole seemed to not have been prepared for the shift away from years of free money.
The price of money can come from 2 sources : interest rates on the one hand, and credit risk on the other, whereby the lender kind of don't trust you to repay him back, and ask therefore a risk premium to get you money.

For the credit cost, there is not much the fed can do, except taking the risk for itself of other not repaying back.
That is what it has been doing on 2 occasion over the last month, where it gave away cash in exchange from bank debentures.

Now that default are raising, banks are getting ownership of houses at the precise moments when they value cash so much.
That creates all the incentive for them to slash down the prices and get rid of those investment as soon as they can.
It will be very instructive to see how low it can go, knowing that a natural floor (unfortunately) exists

On the equity side, as liquidity is a very basic function of any company, it is probable that trouble gets created, in ways that might be spectacular, as we are not used to those types of problem anymore. This might contribute to an overall negativity of equity sentiment.
Companies with lots of recurring cash flows and intelligent managers (a guy told me he knew a guy who told him it exists) will be in good position to snap the competition.

On the global macroeconomic level, inflation seems to be the only way for the usa to solve such a large case.
Thanks to the widespread use of USD in the world, every holder will pay a little bit of its wealth to save the system.
This of course leads to a slide of the currency, which is what has already been observed.

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Barings's problems

Jan. 25th, 2008 | 10:01 pm

In light of recent losses at Société Générale, I cannot say much, by will... and by legal bounds.
I, however, believe in what has pretty much been said regarding the facts in respectable newspapers and communicated by Daniel Bouton.

It is always interesting to look back at what caused problems in other cases, like the Barings with its famous trader, Nick Leeson.
In the Barings case, underskilled counterpower in the middle and back office partly due to bad payrolls, were what made this possible.

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Japon terre de contraste

Jan. 19th, 2008 | 08:39 pm

Il est assez net que nous sommes ici sur une autre planete.
L'attention est particulierement portée sur les details, la presentation, et l'humilite.

L'equilibre economique est tres particulier.
De nombreux emplois faiblement productifs cohabitent avec des entreprises à la proue de la technologie.

Par ces ouvriers dont le travail consiste a agiter mecaniquement un baton reflechissant aux abords des constructions.
Ou ce groom qui se signale quelques secondes avant vous a la porte automatique..

Cette attention maniaque explique en partie des prix delirants lorsque la nation se polarise sur les beaux melons...




1 dollar = 100 yen or so

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free my phone

Dec. 28th, 2007 | 11:34 am

Un pompage integral de http://mossblog.allthingsd.com/20071021/free-my-phone/
L'aspect messianique est un peu surfait, mais bon..

Free My Phone

Suppose you own a Dell computer, and you decide to replace it with a Sony. You don’t have to get the permission of your Internet service provider to do so, or even tell the provider about it. You can just pack up the old machine and set up the new one.

Now, suppose your new computer came with a particular Web browser or online music service, but you’d prefer a different one. You can just download and install the new software, and uninstall the old one. You can sign up for a new music service and cancel the old one. And, once again, you don’t need to even notify your Internet provider, let alone seek its permission.

Oh, and the developers of such computers, software and services can offer you their products directly, without going through the Internet provider, without getting the provider’s approval, and without giving the provider a penny. The Internet provider gets paid simply for its contribution to the mix: providing your Internet connection. But, for all practical purposes, it doesn’t control what is connected to the network, or carried over the network.

This is the way digital capitalism should work, and, in the case of the mass-market personal-computer industry, and the modern Internet, it has created one of the greatest technological revolutions in human history, as well as one of the greatest spurts of wealth creation and of consumer empowerment.

So, it’s intolerable that the same country that produced all this has trapped its citizens in a backward, stifling system when it comes to the next great technology platform, the cellphone.

A shortsighted and often just plain stupid federal government has allowed itself to be bullied and fooled by a handful of big wireless phone operators for decades now. And the result has been a mobile phone system that is the direct opposite of the PC model. It severely limits consumer choice, stifles innovation, crushes entrepreneurship, and has made the U.S. the laughingstock of the mobile-technology world, just as the cellphone is morphing into a powerful hand-held computer.

Whether you are a consumer, a hardware maker, a software developer or a provider of cool new services, it’s hard to make a move in the American cellphone world without the permission of the companies that own the pipes. While power in other technology sectors flows to consumers and nimble entrepreneurs, in the cellphone arena it remains squarely in the hands of the giant carriers.

The Soviet Ministry Model

That’s why I refer to the big cellphone carriers as the “Soviet ministries.” Like the old bureaucracies of communism, they sit athwart the market, breaking the link between the producers of goods and services and the people who use them.

To some extent, they try to replace the market system, and, like the real Soviet ministries, they are a lousy substitute. They decide what phones can be used on their networks and what software and services can be offered on those phones. They require the hardware and software makers to tailor their products to meet the carriers’ specifications, not just so they work properly on the network, but so they promote the carriers’ brands and their various add-on services.

Let me be clear: Any company that spends billions to build and maintain a wireless network deserves to be paid for its use, and deserves to make a profit and a return for its shareholders. Not only that, but companies like Verizon Wireless or AT&T Inc. should be free to build or sell phones or software or services.

What Is Needed

But, in my view, they shouldn’t be allowed to pick and choose what phones run on their networks, and what software and services run on those phones. We need a wireless mobile device ecosystem that mirrors the PC/Internet ecosystem, one where the consumers’ purchase of network capacity is separate from their purchase of the hardware and software they use on that network. It will take government action, or some disruptive technology or business innovation, to get us there.

To my knowledge, only one phone maker, Apple Inc., has been permitted to introduce a cellphone with the cooperation of a U.S. carrier without that carrier having any say in the hardware and software design of the product. And that one example, the iPhone, was a special case, because Apple is currently the hottest digital brand on earth, with its own multibillion-dollar online and physical retail network.

Even so, Apple had to make a deal with the devil to gain the freedom to offer an unimpaired product directly to users. It gave AT&T exclusive rights to be the iPhone’s U.S. network for an undisclosed period of years. It has locked and relocked the phone to make sure consumers can’t override that restriction. This arrangement reportedly brings Apple regular fees from AT&T, but penalizes people who live in areas with poor AT&T coverage.

Apple has also, so far, barred users from installing third-party programs on the iPhone, though the company announced last week it will open the phone to such programs early next year. (Web-based iPhone programs–those that run inside the Web browser–have been available from day one.)

These restrictions have rubbed some of the luster off the best-designed handheld computer ever made.

A few other “smart phones” sold primarily to businesses have been freer of carrier restrictions on third-party software and services than typical cellphones. But even these handsets, such as Palm Treos, Windows Mobile devices, and BlackBerrys, have been partly crippled by carriers in some cases.

As a technology reviewer, I have met with multiple small companies that had trouble getting their programs onto consumers’ phones without the permission of the carriers; getting that permission often requires paying the carriers. Sure, there are some clumsy workarounds that can evade the carrier barrier, but it’s nothing like the ability small software companies have had for decades to offer their products for installation on Windows or Macintosh computers.

We also need much greater portability of phone hardware. Because the federal government failed to set a standard for wireless phone technology years ago, we have two major, incompatible cellphone technologies in the U.S. Verizon Communications Inc. and Sprint Nextel Corp. use something called CDMA. AT&T and Deutsche Telekom AG’s T-Mobile use something called GSM. Except for a couple of oddball models, phones built for one of these technologies can’t work on the other. So that limits consumer choice and consumer power. If you want to switch from AT&T to Verizon, you have to swallow the cost of a new phone.

But the problem is even worse. The government didn’t require the CDMA companies to include a removable account-information chip, called a SIM card, in their phones. So, unlike people with GSM phones, Sprint and Verizon customers can’t keep their phones if they switch between the two carriers, even though they use the same basic technology. And, the government allows the GSM carriers to “lock” their phones, so a SIM card from a rival carrier won’t work in them, at least for a period of time. Techies can sometimes figure out how to get around this, but average folks can’t.

The carriers defend these restrictions partly by pointing out that they subsidize the cost of the phones in order to get you to use their networks. That’s also, they say, why they require contracts and charge early-termination fees. Without the subsidies, they say, that $99 phone might be $299, so it’s only fair to keep you from fleeing their networks, at least too quickly.

But this whole cellphone subsidy game is an archaic remnant of the days when mobile phones were costly novelties. Today, subsidies are a trap for consumers. If subsidies were removed, along with the restrictions that flow from them, the market would quickly produce cheap phones, just as it has produced cheap, unsubsidized versions of every other digital product, from $399 computers to $79 iPods.

The Federal Communications Commission is selling some new wireless spectrum that will supposedly lead to fewer restrictions for technology companies and consumers, but it’s far from certain that the carriers, with their legions of lobbyists and lawyers, will allow such a new day to dawn. Google Inc. is making noises about trying to bust open the cellphone prison, with new software and services, but that’s no sure bet either.

Remember Landlines?

We’ve been through this before in the U.S., though many younger readers may not recall it.

Up until the 1970s, when the federal government intervened, you weren’t allowed to buy your own landline phone, and companies weren’t able to innovate, on price or features, in making and selling phones to the public. All Americans were forced to rent clumsy phones made by a subsidiary of the monopoly phone company, AT&T, which claimed that, unless it controlled what was connected to its network, the network might suffer.

Well, the government pried that market open, and the wired phone network not only didn’t collapse, it became more useful and versatile, allowing, among other things, cheap connections to online data services.

I suspect that if the government, or some disruptive innovation, breaks the crippling power that the wireless carriers exert today, the free market will deliver a similar happy ending.

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Breve

Dec. 26th, 2007 | 01:42 pm

Plantu dessine pour la paix et se moque de tous les "intolérants terrestres"


Avant de voter Plantu aux prochaines elections, je me demande si les intolerants terrestres ne se moquent pas de Plantu....

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Anecdote Tokyoite

Dec. 26th, 2007 | 10:44 am

Au depart de Tokyo, je vais faire un tour dans le "Lounge" Air France, supputant l'existence de nourriture a disposition, n'ayant pas eu le temps de prendre mon petit dejeuner à l'hotel.

Petite parenthese sur les salons, lounge, et autres lieux auxquels ceux qui n'ont pas trouvé quelqu'un d'autre pour payer les billets d'avion (merci banque cherie) n'ont pas acces.
Quel privilege extraordinaire que ces salons.. Au depart de Paris, grace au surcout fantastique de votre billet, vous avez acces a du jus de tomate et des croissants a volonté. frais si vous avez de la chance. Et quel plaisir que de lire son journal a coté de Saoudiens qui braillent.
En fait la vraie valeur ajoutée est que le personnel Air France ne vous crie pas dessus.
Globalement, ces salons semblent etre vraiment une perte pour tout le monde car je ne doute pas qu'ils coutent un argent non negligeable à Air France, en loyer et en personnel, et in fine, a ceux qui les utilisent.

Toujours est il que, travaillé par la faim et aussi pour jeter un oeil, je vais au salon air france de tokyo.
J'y saisis Les Echos*, et lis un article sur les systemes de paiement electronique.
Il me semble que cela fait bien une dizaine d'année que ce sujet est evoqué dans la presse : Souvenez vous du BiBop qui ambitionnait outre ses fonctions de telephonies (non mobile, autour d'une borne) de pouvoir servir de porte monnaie.

Cette fois ci, d'apres les echos, c'est la bonne : d'ici 2012, les industriels auront developpés leur solution de paiement.
Rassasié, je passais dans un kiosque a journaux m'acheter un  peu de dentifrice : j'observais alors dubitativement les nationaux payer avec leur telephone comme si de rien n'etait.... Clairement les problemes de mise en oeuvre ne sont pas techniques mais de perception et de partage de la valeur ajoutée entre les banques, les  operateurs, les constructeurs hardware.

Tout cela souligne l'importance d'avoir des autorités qui savent stimuler la construction de nouveaux business.
Leur pouvoir est reel, a travers les regulations antitrust, les octrois de licence, les  allocations de frequences.
Pendant longtemps, France Telecom a prefere prendre le risque legal plutot que de cooperer avec le marché.
Ce n'est que forcé par la technologie, heureusement portée par ses competiteurs, que FT s'est adapté.
Les mouvements de la FTC americaines pour liberaliser une frequence  sans regulation sont aussi de nature a stimuler l'evolution technologique.

Bref, l'Etat a un role majeur a jouer.... a condition d'etre éclairé, et de connaitre ses limites.


*pas une mauvais publication, ce qui est suprenant pour un journal economique. A contraster avec le wall street journal qui me semble extremement peu pertinent.

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L'immonde

Dec. 25th, 2007 | 01:55 pm

Encore une enorme bourde d'un stagiaire du pravda national :

http://legrandcharles.wordpress.com/2007/12/18/dialogues-de-sourds-interferences-et-non-sens/

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Justice partout

Dec. 22nd, 2007 | 04:04 am

une citation :" En passant de la raison à l'instinct, l'idée de justice acquiert une prodigieuse capacité de destruction. Elle n'est d'ailleurs pas plus, alors, la justice que l'instinct sexuel n'est l'amour, elle n'est même pas le désir de justice, mais la concupiscence féroce et une des formes les plus efficaces de la haine de l'homme pour l'homme. L'instinct de justice, disposant de toutes les ressources de la technique s'apprête à ravager la Terre."

Georges Bernanos, 1947.

et un entretien avec Peter Sloterdijk:
La colère née de l’injustice est le moteur de l’histoire occidentale, affirme le philosophe allemand dans Colère et temps (Maren Sell-Libella). Après l’exploitation meurtrière de cette révolte par les totalitarismes, la gauche doit la transformer en dignité. Et, en France, renoncer au révoltisme comme à l’indignationnisme.

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La peche

Dec. 8th, 2007 | 02:32 pm

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Lecon de cuisine #1

Nov. 29th, 2007 | 10:22 pm

After reviewing the Chiberta, a fine restaurant, it's time to make your own michelin star food.
In a spirit of tolerance and openness to other cultures, we'll try to make some Pastillas, a marocan specialty.

The first step is to go to Picard, and buy this ingredient :


Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket



After a careful cooking, the result is finally up to our hope: enjoy and degust !


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RER B : une « victime » pas si innocente.

Nov. 28th, 2007 | 10:58 pm

Cette entrée n'est plus disponible. Pourquoi?

Principalement parce que mon metier n'est pas de sortir de leur misere des personnes à l'esprit égaré.
Je ne pense pas qu'elles soient nombreuses, ni meme majoritaire, mais elles existent.

Nicolas

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